URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 59 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 58... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030. ...THOMPSON
The SPC has issued a new mesoscale discussion, this includes portions of North Texas and DFW. Looks to be a a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with an issuance likely hood of 80%. Mesoscale Discussion MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 301857Z - 302000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS INCREASING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. WW ISSUANCE LIKELY. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN N TX AHEAD OF A SFC DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...POSING MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK GIVEN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER KDYX VWP AND 18Z KFWD SOUNDING. ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31920071 33269967 33409789 33809784 33689716 33739669 33659654 33119643 32329670 31569724 31319884 31440036 31920071
Watching for thunderstorm development, especially areas where there is clearing from this morning's round of showers and thunderstorms. Not seeing anything severe just yet (as of 1:40 pm), however, in the areas where the skies are clearing and the sun is coming out the atmosphere will begin to destabilize and become more favorable for severe storms. The greatest threats are large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. A watch may be issued for portions of our region later on in the afternoon, so stay tuned for the latest watches and warnings. We are beginning to see some storms developing to the west of DFW along the dryline, monitoring for severe watches or warnings. Latest Mesoscale Discussion MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 301800Z - 302000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG/E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK AND SERN KS REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS OF 18Z...POSING MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. FURTHER W...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK AND THEN SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK INTO W TX. BETWEEN THESE SFC FEATURES AND ELEVATED CONVECTION TO E...A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. GIVEN THIS MODEST DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ IS GENERALLY PRESENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS LESS CLEAR...WITH A VEER-BACK-VEER SIGNATURE PRESENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE KTLX VWP SUGGESTING THE INITIAL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND 0-1 KM WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE BACKED...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE SOME AROUND 00-02Z. ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 37019830 38049791 38269735 37889642 36979664 35129696 33689744 33229836 33339939 34379923 37019830
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